The odds of the US economy entering a recession

The odds of the US economy entering a recession in 2025 have fallen to a new low of just 19%. Since Election Day, the odds of the US economy entering a recession are down 35 percentage points. This comes after the preliminary reading of the Q4 2024 GPD showed that the US economy grew by 2.3 percent. Even as interest rates remain high and inflation recovers, the US economy is growing.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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