Soft landing or reset? Commodity deflationary slope

Bloomberg Commodity Spot Indexs, det vill säga råvarors uppgång på nästan en procent under första kvartalet drevs upp av S&P 500:s totalavkastning runt tio procent, men ändå pressad av ett deflaterande Kina, vilket kan förebåda 2024 riskbenägenhet. Fallande statsobligationsräntor och aktiemarknader i Kina (den främsta råvarukonsumenten) kan följa reversionslärdomar från snabba tillväxtmarknader, särskilt när de upprör sina främsta exportkunder (USA och Europa) via "obegränsad vänskap" med Ryssland.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Indexes, that is, commodities’ nearly one percent gain in the first quarter was driven by the S&P 500‘s total return around ten percent, but still pressured by a deflating China, which may foreshadow 2024 risk appetite. Falling government bond yields and stock markets in China (the main commodity consumer) may follow reversionary lessons from fast emerging markets, especially when they upset their main export customers (the US and Europe) via “unlimited friendship” with Russia.

Record highs in gold compared to most commodities re-entering pre-pandemic ranges is consistent with my view of deflation typically following the liquidity and price pumps to 2022 peak levels, and the tilt towards a major reset. WTI crude oil and copper may have approached the 2024 highs in the first quarter, and the biggest potential risk of domino tumbling is some back-and-fill in US equities.

Source: Bloomberg

About the Viking

With Viking’s signals, you have a good chance of finding the winners and selling in time. There are many securities. With Viking’s autopilots or tables, you can sort out the most interesting ETFs, stocks, options, warrants, funds, and so on. Vikingen is one of Sweden’s oldest equity research programs.

Click here to see what Vikingen offers: Detailed comparison – Stock market program for those who want to get even richer (vikingen.se)