El Niño contributes to global sugar deficit in 2023/2024

In 2023/24, the world will produce 178.8 million tons of sugar, the second largest harvest ever after the 2017/2018 season. However, this forecast is 1.9 million tons lower than the previous April update and contributes to a global sugar deficit in 2023/2024.

Much of this downgrade comes from Thailand where farmers prefer to plant cassava in 2023/2024 as yields are now much better than for sugarcane. This, and the higher risk of drought from the upcoming El Niño weather phenomenon, means that the production forecast has been lowered by almost 1.5 million tons, to 8.2 million tons.

In central-southern Brazil, sugar production is still expected to reach the second highest figure ever in 2023/2024 (37.6 million tons), despite recent wet weather hindering crushing.

Global sugar consumption

In 2023/2024, the world is expected to consume almost 180 million tons of sugar, the highest consumption ever. Due to minor adjustments in several regions, this forecast is 0.9 million tons higher than the previous update. There are no signs yet that consumption will decrease due to high sugar prices.

Small production deficit

With a reduced global production forecast and an increased consumption forecast, a production deficit of around 0.1 million tons is predicted to form in the 2023/2024 season, down from a surplus of 2.7 million tons in April.

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