Could the FED cut interest rates in January?

Can the Fed cut interest rates in January?

Massiv förändring under de senaste 5 veckorna när det kommer till vad marknaden prissätter från Fed. Det finns nu tecken som tyder på att vi kan se FED sänka räntan under det första kvartalet 2023, och det finns till och med tecken på att det kan ske i januari, även om det i dagsläget är mycket ljusa förhoppningar.

Massive change in the last 5 weeks in terms of what the market is pricing in from the Fed. There are now signs that we could see the Fed cut rates in the first quarter of 2023, and there are even signs that it could happen in January, although at the moment the outlook is very bright.

Source: Bloomberg

Futures now show a ~45% chance that FED rate cuts will begin as soon as March 2024. There is also a growing (but small) chance that we could see the Fed cut interest rates in January 2024, by 4%.

Before the latest CPI inflation data, the base case showed interest rate cuts starting in June 2024. There was also a 50% chance of another rate hike in 2024. This has been a quick turnaround…

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

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